On automation: Every 5th Job is Already Forever Human

Give or take every 5th person in the world today is paid to be the human that they are: therapist, judge, shaman, sommeliers, hospice worker, comic, fitness trainer, etc. The number of people in these jobs has been growing every decade:

Estimates based on occupation data

Why these jobs will never be automated?

This is not controversial. Because people prefer to deal with a human and because these jobs can be very satisfying and source of meaning. See bottom of this article for the detailed enumeration.

These jobs will forever be at a $ premium

Baumol effect explains how $ spend from "other" jobs is migrating to "human@core" jobs making them at least as expensive and in most cases more expensive over time.

Automation accelerates migration to "human@core" jobs

Share of human@core jobs grows as new entrants are more likely to take these jobs and people who have other jobs gradually shed non-human aspects.

2035 estimates

1b jobs are up for "2035 AI automation debate"

Can migration to human@core jobs go faster? Yes depending on how quickly automation addresses 3 categories of work:

• "Frontier". Work where no tech exists that can complete tasks done manually today.
• "ROI nooks". Work where tech exists but cannot be deployed due to fragmentation.
• "ROI crannies". Work where tech exists but nobody would pay for it to be deployed due principal–agent problems, diffuse beneficiaries, weak enforcement, procurement politics, etc.

What are these "human@core" jobs?

1. Being with people

• Therapy / counseling / coaching
• Pastoral care, chaplaincy, grief support
• High-end hospitality, concierge, luxury retail clienteling
• Childcare, elder companionship

Why human? Being with a bot feels like a fraud.

2. Having trust, judgment, or accountability

• Judges, juries, arbitrators, parole boards
• Medical diagnosis discussions and informed consent conversations
• Executive sign-off, safety officer approvals, compliance attestations
• Crisis leadership / incident command

Why human? Even if a system is right, people want a human who can be questioned, blamed, forgiven, or relied on.

3. Sacred / ceremonial / meaning-making work

• Weddings, funerals, rites, officiants
• Diplomatic ceremonies, awards, commencements
• Community rituals, religious services

Why human? Automation undermines meaning.

4. Taste, status, and identity signaling

• Chefs, sommeliers, fashion stylists, art curators
• Celebrity endorsements, influencer content where connection matters
• Commissioned art where provenance matters

Why human? The “who” is the value.

5. Negotiation, conflict, and persuasion

• Union negotiations, labor relations
• Hostage negotiation, mediation
• Enterprise sales at high stakes (politics + coalition building)
• Internal org conflict resolution

Why human? Humans want to feel heard; outcomes depend on legitimacy and face-saving.

6. Care under vulnerability

• ICU bedside support, oncology navigation, hospice
• Social work home visits, domestic violence support
• Special education

Why human?: Automation can feel cold, disrespectful, or unemotional.

7. Live performance and presence-based entertainment

• Theater, concerts, stand-up, live sports
• DJs, live events, emcees
• Teaching where “room energy” is the value

Why human? The core value is that it happened here, now, with us.

8. Work where friction is intentionally preserved

• Certain legal procedures and hearings
• Ethics review boards, peer review panels
• “Speed bumps” in safety-critical operations

Why human? “inefficiency” is there to deter abuse or create deliberation.

9. Human effort itself

• Handmade craft, bespoke building, artisanal food
• Some fitness training (“I show up for my trainer”)
• Certain “white glove” services (home organizing, personal assistance)

Why human? Effort is a feature, not a bug.

10. Community leadership and legitimacy roles

• Elected officials (even if they use tools heavily)
• Community organizers, heads of institutions
• Brand figureheads / spokespeople

Why human? Legitimacy and mandate are human/social, not technical.

Originally published on LinkedIn.